Week 5 Predictions - Big 10 Football

In an effort to publicly humiliate myself as much as possible this season, I would like to offer up my predictions for this week’s games involving Big 10 teams.

• Illinois - Michigan St
• Illinois is bad. Really, really bad. Michigan State can score faster than Paris Hilton at a Navy Boot Camp graduation party. Michigan State might be good at choking late in the game, but Illinois does not have an ounce of the Jesus luck that Notre Dame has
• MSU 42, Illinois 17
• Wisconsin - Indiana
• Wisconsin seems to favor not scoring much recently. They will this Saturday.
• Indiana will be emotional with the return of the head coach and could hang close for a while, but their lack of talent will shine late in the game.
• Interesting schedule note. Wisconsin only has one more road game they should be predicted to lose and after this game, only 1 other road game (against Purdue). If they get a road win here, they could be setting themselves up very well for a high finish in the Big 10 with no OSU or MSU on their schedule and home games against Northwestern, Minnesota, Illinois, Penn State, and Buffalo.
• Wisconsin 28 - Indiana 16
• Northwestern - PSU
• Northwestern is another really bad team in the Big 10. They had way too much happen in the off season to have any chance early this season.
• Penn State has to start winning some games. They will not be able to prove they can beat a good team this week, but they will get a win and maybe restore some confidence in their young QB before needing to go on the road next week.
• PSU 28 - Northwestern 10
• Purdue - Notre Dame
• Purdue is probably worse than their 4-0 record would indicate. They have played all of their games at home and only one Minnesota had a pulse. This will be their first road game.
• The magic that carried Notre Dame through the 4th quarter of last week’s game will still be lingering. And, as much as I hate to say it, Notre Dame is a pretty good team that can make a lot of big plays.
• Notre Dame will end up 3-1 in their Big 10 conference play. Seriously Notre Dame and Big 10. Bring Notre Dame in or kick them out. Don’t let them cherry pick games and play 3 of their 4 games in the conference at home.
• Notre Dame 38 - Purdue 24
• Michigan - Minnesota
• I normally love watching these two go at it. There is nothing like watching Minnesota think they are about to finally beat a good team only to choke in the end to the Maize and Blue.
• Michigan will need to stop a team that runs the ball and then runs it some more. If Minnesota can stay close, they will not have to resort to tossing the ball around and that could cause Michigan some trouble since Minnesota knows how to run the ball.
• Minnesota needs to prove that they can actually beat one of the big boys of the Big 10. I don’t think it will be this year. Michigan looks pretty solid across the board.
• Michigan 35 - Minnesota 21
• Ohio State - Iowa
• Oh Lord, help my heart this weekend. I’ll be front row for this monster of a game. I’m already starting to twitch and still have 33 hours left until kick off.
• Ohio State has beaten two pretty good teams. Texas and Penn State. Both teams had first year quarterbacks. Tate is not a first year quarterback and may not be intimidated by OSU’s defense.
• Iowa hasn’t played a good team yet this year and despite having moments where they looked really good, has not put together more than a few really good minutes in a row in any game. That will have to change on Saturday.
• Tate has beaten OSU once in his career and lost once. If he keeps under control and does not throw stupid interceptions, the game will stay close and the crowd will be insane in the fourth quarter.
• If you are looking for me on TV during the game, I will be on the 35 yard line, front row. If they show Drew Tate sitting on the sideline and there is some tall skinny guy screaming in the front row behind him, that’s me. Yeah, we have pretty good seats.
• Homer pick, so don’t bet your house or even your shoes based on this. And please, oh please, let us win this on a last second field goal.
• Iowa 24 - OSU 21

Update: As you can see, the Hawkeyes do not suck as badly as the Buckeyes so my prediction must be correct.

Drew Tate is not a first year quarterback

Ohio State’s defense has been good in their two big games this year.  It is difficult to really get a gauge of how good the defense is, though, because both Texas and Penn State have first year quarterbacks.

If Iowa can keep possession of the ball, they have a chance.  When the score stays close, Iowa will be able to run the ball and use the play action to keep the Ohio State defense on their toes.

Drew Tate is not a first year quarterback.  He led the team to a big victory and felt a big loss so far in his previous two games against Ohio State.  That experience should prevent any panic and hopefully any stupid game changing turnovers.

Playing Ohio State in the dark

Iowa does not play in many night games.  In fact the last game that actually started in the dark in Iowa was back in 1992 against Miami.

There have been a few games that started late in the day and then the sun went down around halftime.  And let me tell you, the energy level sky rockets after dark.  I cannot even imagine how crazy it will be for this Ohio State game.

If Iowa can manage to win the game, the only game they probably won’t be favored to win would be the game at Michigan.  If Iowa manages to win, they will be back in the top 10 and there will probably be 3 Big 10 teams in the top 10 of the next polls.
Ohio State is a 7 point favorite on the road, so this is no easy game for Iowa.

The way I see it, for Iowa to have a chance they must do the following:

• Keep Ginn in front of them.  If he ends up behind them, there is nobody that is going to catch him.  One of Iowa’s defensive strengths is preventing big plays, so this should be doable if everybody stays focused.
• Keep Smith from running up the middle.  The last couple games, Iowa has had some trouble giving up yards to quarterbacks sneaking through the middle of the line.  Smith is a much better runner than the last two quarterbacks, so some linebacker will have to keep him honest.
• Not turnover the ball.  Tate threw a stupid interception last week.  He cannot afford any stupid plays this week.
• Find some way to run the ball.  The running game does not need to dominate, but it does need to eat up some clock and it does need to draw the linebackers toward the line of scrimmage to free the receivers and tight ends over the middle.
• Not give up a quick score.  The crowd will be drunk and insane when this game starts.  If Ohio State gets a big play or a big drive right away, a lot of that crowd momentum could diminish.  If Iowa gets the first touchdown or big play, that could put even more crowd pressure on Ohio State.  There’s something about the shape of the stadium and the lungs of the fans, but Iowa is a loud stadium.
• Not drop passes.  With as many young receivers as Iowa is using, these guys need tot hold onto the ball.  Dropped balls kill drives.  Tipped balls lead to interceptions and touchdowns.  The receivers need to get that ball.  And if the defender has the better position, they need to tackle him before he picks off the pass and take the penalty.  They had trouble doing that in the Syracuse game.

Easy, right?

Come back later this week when I make my predictions for this weeks Big 10 games.

In state rivalry for the out of state fan

I lived in Iowa for a few years between 1978 to 1982.  I went to Kindergarten, 1st, and part of 2nd grade in Iowa.

I managed to stay a Hawkeye fan even though I spent most of my life in Illinois and never attended the University of Iowa.  Go figure.

The big rivalry was this weekend.  Iowa - Iowa State.

This game means so little to me.  Most of my life being a Hawkeye sports fan was hating Illinois.  And that game is coming up this weekend.

Don’t get me wrong.  I like beating ISU.  It is good for the season’s record.  It is good for in state recruiting.  But, that is where my concern with ISU ends.  I don’t have any friends that are ISU fans.  I didn’t go to school with any ISU fans.  As far as I know, there are no ISU fans.
Beating Illinois is good for the season’s record.  It is good for recruiting in the Chicago suburbs.  It is good for the Big 10 conference record.  And it makes me happy that all the friends I grew up with that were big Illini fans might remember me…and remember that I am making fun of them even though I have lost track of them over the years.
And it is good because I hate the Fighting Illini.

3-0 feels great, but let’s get on with the Big 10 schedule already.

When to lighten up a future schedule

I’ve made fun of Missouri for bailing on the series with the Hawkeyes once the Hawks started getting better.  Once you make a commitment, you should just follow through with it.  Unless you want your team to think you are a chicken.

Sometimes, though, you have to use a little common sense.  It looks like Wisconsin just used a little common sense.  The Badgers were scheduled to play Virginia Tech in 2008 and 2009.  Excellent early season game if you ask me.  The series will probably help both schools do some recruiting and both schools are always competitive Top 25 type of teams.

Wisconsing just asked and was granted permission to reschedule the series to 2016 and 2017.  Because their schedule was too tough in 2008.  Cry me a river, right?

Well, check this out (it’s way down toward the bottom).  In 2008, they open the Big 10 with games against Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State and Iowa.  Yeah, I might consider trying to get out of the VT game that year, too.

Where would the Iowa Hawkeyes rank without Drew Tate

Let’s say Drew Tate had to sit on the bench this week.  I think he’ll play, but let’s pretend he needs another week of rest for a second.  And, Jason Manson is going to be the starter.  Where would you rank Iowa right now with Manson as the starter?

I would put us somewhere around 20th.  The defense is good.  The offense will be fine if the turnovers decrease.  And, I do not expect Manson to ever end up with anywhere near 4 INTs again.

Where would I rank Iowa with Tate?  Probably around 15.  I want to see them get on a roll before I worry about pushing them anywhere near the top 10.  Beat ISU convincingly with Tate or at all with Manson and I’ll start getting happy.

The difference might be bigger if the running game sucked or the defense showed any signs of struggling.  With those two aspects working well right now, any decent quarterback should be able to give Iowa a good chance of beating some pretty good teams.  Manson looked just fine in overtime.
So, by my calculations, Tate is good for about 5 positions in the rankings. There’s a big difference between being ranked 15 and 20, though.  A loss at 15 pushes you into the 20s the next week.  A loss at 20 pushes you into the “Also getting votes” category.

Here’s my question for Hawkeye fans.  If Tate isn’t 100%, would you rather see him sit, maybe lose against ISU and try to recover for the start of the Big 10,  Or would you prefer for him to try and play, risk getting hurt and missing Big 10 games.

I want Tate to rest until he is healed.  In addition to being bad for the season if he misses more games, the potential of losing him in the middle of the ISU game is scary.  It is hard enough to quarterback a team playing as the starter and getting to practice with the starters.  Trying to come into the game after the 1st string QB gets hurt and after playing with the 2nd string offense all week is even worse.

The good news is that I think the injury at this point is just something to keep ISU guessing.  I’m expecting that Tate is healed up after his week off and will be ready to go this Saturday.

Weekend Fantasy Football Wrapup 9/09/06

And just like that I tumble from the pack at the top.

I only had one pick that I was particularly proud of.  I picked Boston College to beat Clemson.  Other than that all of my odd picks turned out bad.

The Gophers suck.  Penn State sucks.  Oh well, there’s always next week.

Not everybody flips their magic coin poorly though.  Myrtle has finished at least tied for first both weeks so far.  Her “system” seems to be a winner.

DaBears missed the first week but finished strongly in second place this week.  Deacon Blues must have forgotten about us and used one of his bye weeks last week.
YuckFou_OSU is the greatest name of all time, but you need to actually hit the submit button if you want to escape the cellar.  Let me know if you are having trouble getting signed in and making your picks.

The pick of the week had to be darock4hawks pick of Michigan not covering the spread against Central Michigan.  Well done.

Good luck this week.  There are 7 games where Top 25 teams are playing each other.  Good luck sorting that out.  I have a feeling that Myrtle’s “system” might be put to the test this weekend.

The Goal Line Stand

Nothing is better than blowing out a team…if you want to watch a really boring game.

For real entertainment value, sit your starting QB right before the game and watch the next man in struggle.  Commit 4 interceptions and force zero turnovers.  Commit 4 pass interference penalties between the last drive of regulation and the two overtimes.  And make sure none of them are bad enough for even a Homer like me to complain about.  That makes for good television.  I have heard from several people today at work that they had fun watching the Iowa - Syracuse game.

Before the game, my biggest fear was ABC leaving the game after the Hawkeyes went up big.  I was hosted my first football party at my house in several years.

But, Iowa minus one Tate leads to a very confused offense.

But, we learned something about Iowa on Saturday.  Something that makes me very happy.  Iowa’s run defense is stout.

Two seasons ago, my twins who were 1 1/2 at the time, used to answer the question “Who runs on my Hawkeyes?” with an enthusiastic, “NOBODY!”  Last year, the defensive line was not quite as impressive until late in the season.

Saturday, Syracuse had the ball around the 2 yard line in the second overtime looking to tie the game.  Their one pass resulted in a pass interference to give them a new set of downs.  It took them seven plays to realize the thing that my children have known for the past two years.

Nobody runs on my Hawkeyes!

Do not ever listen to my predictions again

It is a good thing I am not a gambler after the predictions I made last week.  Oh well.  At least I’ve still got my good looks.

Fortunately, the only thing I mostly got right was Ohio State beating Texas so I did not wear my sweater vest today.  Instead I opted for my humbling Iowa -vs- Florida shirt from last year’s outback bowl.

So PSU looks like they are not going to match the magic of last year and the Gophers are never going to make it to the top 25 before starting their death spiral.  Should be an interesting year in the middle of the Big 10.

But what about those Hawkeyes.

Who knew that Tate wasn’t going to play?  I don’t even think Manson knew until after he tied his shoes in the locker room.  Talk about pressure.

And he showed some pressure.  4 interceptions against Syracuse is a subpar day for any college quarterback no matter how deep they belong in the depth chart.

One of those was a ball was thrown a little too nicely for Moeaki to hold on to.  That one was totally Tony’s fault.

Another was a deep floater into the end zone.  The ball needed to be thrown about 5 yards further, but it wasn’t.  That’s Manson’s fault.  The receiver should have come back to the ball and at least prevented the DB from catching the ball.  Instead he just slowed down and waited for the ball to get there…which it never did.  That is the receivers fault.

There was another moment in the game where a receiver was charging back toward Manson and as soon as Manson threw the ball he slowed down and the defender didn’t.  I can’t remember if that was one of the picks or not, but the receivers need to spend a lot of time watching the video this week to learn how to make sure they are the only person that can catch the ball.  Young receivers can be taught and I expect them to make strides in this area by next week.

One thing I did like about Manson is that he never really looked panicky out there.  Even after 4 picks.  Another thing is the team never looked panicky which indicates how much they trust Manson.  That could come in handy next week if Tate does not heal enough before the Iowa State game.

I was among the fans begging Ferentz through my TV to try a different QB.  I need to remember to stop that.  I did that a couple times during the Chandler for QB year and all he did was lead the team to the most wins by an Iowa team ever.

Trust Ferentz.  He knows who belongs on the bench and who belongs on the field.  If Manson is on the field, he is the best option on that day.

Technorati Tags: college football, Iowa quarterback, Drew Tate, Jason Manson, Iowa Hawkeyes

Some college football predictions for 9/8/06

Let’s do some predictions for this coming weekend:

Iowa vs Syracuse - I’m expecting the receivers to drop a few less passes and for the offense to look sharper than last week against Montana.  With Iwebema back from his one game suspension, I’m expecting the defensive line to be even a little more crazy.  Iowa 54 - Syracuse 10

Ohio State vs Texas - both these teams sound really good so far.  The odds that both are as good as they sound are pretty slim.  I’m guessing that Texas is overrated.  I would even go so far as to say that Ohio St. might be underrated even though they are #1.  If they get a big win in Texas, OSU will probably get all the number 1 votes.  I’ll pick somewhere in between.  If I’m wrong I’ll wear my sweater vest to work on Monday.  OSU 28 - Texas 21.

Minnesota vs California - this is a great opportunity for Minnesota to play a “real” team before the Big 10 season.  I think Cal will score a lot of points and rack up a lot of yards.  Unfortunately for them, Minnesota will light up the scoreboard a little more often and maybe even wind up in the top 25 next week only to have their hearts crushed a few weeks into the Big 10.  Minnesota 48 - Cal 35.

Penn State vs Notre Dame - the game is in South Bend and Notre Dame had SO much hype this preseason.  Last year I predicted that Penn State would win the Big 10 before the season started.  I don’t think they will do quite that well this year, but Morelli will have a big game, Penn State will win, Quinn will fade from the Heisman talk and all will be good in the world again.  Penn State 21 - Notre Dame 17.

Don’t bet your house on my predictions.  If I was any good, I’d be living a much more exciting life and not wasting my time on the internet.

If you think you can do better, let me know.  I have a private Yahoo! College Football Pick ‘Em league.  If you want to go up against me and some friends, let me know your email either by leaving a comment or using the contact me button above.  I’ll send you an invite to join our league.  We are dropping the lowest four weeks, so you still have plenty of opportunity to compete.  All fans welcome and probably made fun of at some point, even those of the Fighting Irish.

If you are already in the league, make sure you get this weeks predictions entered.

Technorati Tags: college football, football predictions