I read a decidedly non-Hawkeye related article today and since it is the middle of the dullest part of the Hawkeye sports season, I’d rather talk about it today. The article is a look at the contenders and pretenders as we head into the second half of the baseball season.
The article has the Cubs as the runaway favorites in the NL. They have the best record in baseball so that seems fine. Here’s my beef. For the Cubs they list their weakness as:
They’re bad: At pinch-hitting. In 126 at-bats, Cubs pinch-hitters have only 22 hits, and their .175 average is worst in the NL.
Sure that sounds pretty sucky. But I think the Cubs have a bigger issue that is completely overlooked in the article. The Cubs have a losing record on the road. They are 21-28 away from Wrigley. The Cardinals, who are just a couple games back from them are 27-22. The Brewers who are only 3 games back from the Cubs are 24-26.
I like teams that can win wherever they play and while the Cardinals are not quite as scary as the Cubs or Brewers, especially with the recent pitcher additions to both teams, the Cardinals are capable of winning on the road and at home.
Which makes me wonder at why the Cubs would have 4/5 odds of getting to the post season while the Cardinals and Brewers are 10/1 and 6/1 respectively.
Especially with the 3 teams as close as they are with so much of the season remaining. I have no trouble giving pretty strong odds to all three teams to make the post season since currently all three teams have records quite a bit better than the 2nd place team in the other divisions, so the 2nd place team in the Central should be in good position to get the wildcard. I’m just not sure that the Cubs are that much more likely to get to the post season than the Cardinals or Brewers.
I’m not sure if those odds are Jeff Passan’s odds or Vegas’ but it sounds like somebody might be getting a little swept away by Cubs hysteria.